{"id":13740,"date":"2025-08-13T10:15:40","date_gmt":"2025-08-13T10:15:40","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/staging-blog.shoonya.com\/?p=13740"},"modified":"2025-08-13T10:15:40","modified_gmt":"2025-08-13T10:15:40","slug":"retail-inflation-drops","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/retail-inflation-drops\/","title":{"rendered":"Food Prices Push Retail Inflation Down to 1.55% in July"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_87 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\"><\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/retail-inflation-drops\/#Key_Highlights_of_Retail_Inflation_%E2%80%93_July_2025\" >Key Highlights of Retail Inflation &#8211; July 2025<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/retail-inflation-drops\/#Final_Thought\" >Final Thought<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<div class=\"yoast-breadcrumbs\"><span><span><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/\">Home<\/a><\/span> \u00bb <span><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/latest-news\/\">News<\/a><\/span> \u00bb <span class=\"breadcrumb_last\" aria-current=\"page\"><strong>Food Prices Push Retail Inflation Down to 1.55% in July<\/strong><\/span><\/span><\/div>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Shoppers across India are getting some relief as retail inflation cooled to 1.55% in July,&nbsp; the second lowest in eight years.The main reason? Food inflation actually turned negative. This means the prices of many essentials are currently lower than they were a year ago. CPI inflation has now declined for nine consecutive months, marking a steady cooling trend. For the first time since 2019, it has dropped below the MPC\u2019s 2\u20136% comfort range. For the RBI, this opens up more room to cut interest rates, a move that could give the economy and India\u2019s GDP growth a healthy push in the months ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-key-highlights-of-retail-inflation-july-2025\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Key_Highlights_of_Retail_Inflation_%E2%80%93_July_2025\"><\/span>Key Highlights of Retail Inflation &#8211; July 2025<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>July 2025<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>June 2025<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Change \/ Remarks<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Retail Inflation (CPI)<\/strong><\/td><td>1.55%<\/td><td>2.10%<\/td><td>Lowest in 8 years, 2nd lowest ever under current CPI series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Food Inflation<\/strong><\/td><td>-1.76%<\/td><td>-0.3%<\/td><td>Prices fell YoY, biggest drop since Jan 2019<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Vegetable Prices<\/strong><\/td><td>-20.69% YoY<\/td><td>-7% YoY<\/td><td>Lowest in nearly 4 years<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Urban Inflation<\/strong><\/td><td>2.05%<\/td><td>2.56%<\/td><td>2nd lowest ever<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Rural Inflation<\/strong><\/td><td>1.18%<\/td><td>1.72%<\/td><td>Record low<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Core Inflation<\/strong><\/td><td>4.1%<\/td><td>4.4%<\/td><td>Drop led by lower education &amp; personal care prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>RBI Inflation Forecast<\/strong><\/td><td>Q2 FY26: 2.1%<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Rising to 4.9% by Q1 FY27<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><strong>Policy Impact<\/strong><\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>\u2014<\/td><td>Below MPC\u2019s 2\u20136% target range for first time since Jan 2019, rate cut hopes rise<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Below are the reasons for the decline.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Food Prices Continue to Drive Inflation Down<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The biggest reason for retail inflation cooling in July 2025 was the sharp drop in food inflation. Prices fell <strong>1.76%<\/strong> year-on-year, the steepest fall since January 2019. Vegetable prices were down 2over 0% compared to last year, their lowest level in nearly four years. However, on a month-to-month basis, vegetables and fruits became more expensive, with vegetables up 11.6% and fruits up 2.8% from June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Rural Inflation Hits Record Low, Urban Inflation Nears All-Time Low<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Inflation in rural India dropped to <strong>1.18%<\/strong>, its lowest ever recorded level. Good monsoon rains have supported farm output and kept prices in check, boosting rural purchasing power. In cities, urban retail inflation fell to <strong>2.05%<\/strong>, the second-lowest ever reading. This rural-urban divide also reflects in consumer confidence surveys, with rural households becoming slightly more optimistic while urban sentiment remains cautious.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Core Inflation Sees Mild Decline<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Excluding food and fuel, core inflation slipped to <strong>4.1%<\/strong> in July from <strong>4.4%<\/strong> in June. The moderation was mainly due to softer price momentum in categories like education and personal care. However, gold prices, which have been a major driver of core inflation this year, remain elevated, up 36% year-on-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Below the RBI Target, Policy Outlook Changes<\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">For the first time since January 2019, CPI inflation has fallen below the RBI\u2019s Monetary Policy Committee lower target of <strong>2%<\/strong>. At 1.55%, the latest reading is well below the midpoint of the 2\u20136% range, giving the RBI more room to consider a rate cut. Economists say further easing could be on the table, especially if India&#8217;s GDP growth faces headwinds from global trade tensions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-final-thought\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Thought\"><\/span>Final Thought<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">With retail inflation now at an eight-year low, households are feeling some relief on essential spending. Also, policymakers have more flexibility in setting interest rates. The drop below the RBI\u2019s lower target opens the door for the Monetary Policy Committee to consider further rate cuts, which could support borrowing and boost growth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">However, risks like volatile global food prices, potential weather disruptions, and global trade tensions, including tariff threats, mean the path ahead isn\u2019t without hurdles. For now, the latest CPI inflation data offers a welcome breather for the economy, but sustaining it will require steady supply chains and a watchful eye on global developments.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Source: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com\/news\/business\/economy\/india-s-inflation-falls-to-eight-year-low-of-1-55-in-july-13443635.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener nofollow\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#d79b30\" class=\"has-inline-color\">MoneyControl<\/mark><\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#d79b30\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Disclaimer<\/mark><\/strong>: Investments in the securities market are subject to market risks; read all the related documents carefully before 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Food inflation actually turned negative. This means the prices of many essentials are currently lower than they were a year ago. CPI inflation has now declined for nine consecutive months, marking a &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/retail-inflation-drops\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;Food Prices Push Retail Inflation Down to 1.55% in July&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":16,"featured_media":13741,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[1207,5803,5239,6884,5562,1216,4571,8252],"class_list":["post-13740","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","tag-consumer-price-index","tag-cpi-inflation","tag-food-inflation","tag-india-gdp","tag-inflation-rate-in-india","tag-monetary-policy-committee","tag-retail-inflation","tag-retail-inflation-this-month"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This 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