{"id":17681,"date":"2026-06-25T06:27:31","date_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:57:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/?p=17681"},"modified":"2026-06-25T06:27:31","modified_gmt":"2026-06-25T12:57:31","slug":"india-gdp-forecast","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/","title":{"rendered":"India&#8217;s GDP Forecast for FY27 Cut to 6.6% by S&amp;P Global Amid Inflation Concerns"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_87 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\"><\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/#Three_Reasons_Behind_the_GDP_Forecast_Cut\" >Three Reasons Behind the GDP Forecast Cut<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/#GDP_and_Inflation_Estimates_Compared\" >GDP and Inflation Estimates Compared<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/#S_P_Globals_Forecast_Aligns_With_RBIs_Revised_Estimate\" >S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Forecast Aligns With RBI&#8217;s Revised Estimate<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/#Final_Outlook\" >Final Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<nav style=\"--separator: &quot;\/&quot;\" class=\"wp-block-breadcrumbs\" aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\"><ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/\">Home<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/latest-news\/\">News<\/a><\/li><li><span aria-current=\"page\">India&#8217;s GDP Forecast for FY27 Cut to 6.6% by S&amp;P Global Amid Inflation Concerns<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Global Ratings placed India&#8217;s real GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, a 110-basis-point drop from 7.7% in FY26. The revision is part of the agency&#8217;s Asia-Pacific Q3 2026 economic outlook, published on June 24, 2026.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Three_Reasons_Behind_the_GDP_Forecast_Cut\"><\/span>Three Reasons Behind the GDP Forecast Cut<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Global attributed the revision to three factors:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Crude oil dependence:<\/strong> India sources 88% of its oil from overseas. Rising global prices increase the import bill and put upward pressure on consumer prices<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Monsoon deficit:<\/strong> El Ni\u00f1o has weakened rainfall, with the deficit at 43% as of June 22. State governments have drawn up contingency plans recommending alternative crops<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Slower global demand:<\/strong> Weaker external conditions and supply chain pressures are limiting growth across import-dependent economies<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"GDP_and_Inflation_Estimates_Compared\"><\/span>GDP and Inflation Estimates Compared<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Indicator<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Earlier Estimate<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Latest Estimate<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S&amp;P Global Real GDP Forecast<\/td><td>7.7% (FY26)<\/td><td>6.6% (FY27)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>S&amp;P Global CPI Inflation Forecast<\/td><td>4.9%<\/td><td>5.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RBI Real GDP Forecast<\/td><td>6.9%<\/td><td>6.6%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"S_P_Globals_Forecast_Aligns_With_RBIs_Revised_Estimate\"><\/span>S&amp;P Global&#8217;s Forecast Aligns With RBI&#8217;s Revised Estimate<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The RBI cited global supply chain disruptions, financial market volatility, and weather-related risks as downside factors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Inflation Forecast Raised to 5.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Two channels are driving the increase:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Manufacturers are passing on higher input costs to consumers<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Government-administered price increases on petrol, diesel, and cooking gas.\u00a0<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher fertiliser costs are an additional factor, weighing on food production and keeping food prices under pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Repo Rate Hike Expected From October<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Global expects the RBI to begin raising the repo rate from October. The repo rate is the rate at which the RBI lends to commercial banks and influences borrowing costs across the financial system.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Current Account Deficit Likely to Widen<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Higher crude imports and a weaker rupee are expected to put pressure on India&#8217;s current account, the difference between what the country earns through exports and inflows versus what it spends on imports and outward payments.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Global noted that recent policy steps to attract foreign capital have provided some support to the rupee.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Outlook\"><\/span>Final Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">S&amp;P Global&#8217;s FY27 projection pairs slower growth with higher inflation, leaving limited room for monetary easing. October will be the first inflexion point, when the RBI&#8217;s rate decision and monsoon outcomes will together shape how the second half of the fiscal year unfolds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Source:&nbsp;<\/strong>https:\/\/www.moneycontrol.com<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><mark style=\"background-color:rgba(0, 0, 0, 0);color:#d79b30\" class=\"has-inline-color\">Disclaimer<\/mark>: This content is for education and awareness purposes only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>S&amp;P Global Ratings placed India&#8217;s real GDP growth at 6.6% for FY27, a 110-basis-point drop from 7.7% in FY26. The revision is part of the agency&#8217;s Asia-Pacific Q3 2026 economic outlook, published on June 24, 2026.&nbsp; Three Reasons Behind the GDP Forecast Cut S&amp;P Global attributed the revision to three factors: GDP and Inflation Estimates &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-gdp-forecast\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;India&#8217;s GDP Forecast for FY27 Cut to 6.6% by S&amp;P Global Amid Inflation Concerns&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":17682,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[10161],"class_list":["post-17681","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","tag-indias-gdp-forecast"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>S&amp;P Global Cuts India FY27 GDP Forecast to 6.6%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"S&amp;P Global cut India&#039;s FY27 GDP forecast to 6.6%, raised inflation to 5.1%, and expects the RBI to hike the repo rate from October. 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