{"id":18136,"date":"2026-08-06T01:36:30","date_gmt":"2026-08-06T08:06:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/?p=18136"},"modified":"2026-08-09T23:20:31","modified_gmt":"2026-08-10T05:50:31","slug":"global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/","title":{"rendered":"From $120 to $80: How Global Oil Markets Absorbed the Shock"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_87 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\"><\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/#How_Brent_Crude_Has_Moved_Through_the_Conflict\" >How Brent Crude Has Moved Through the Conflict<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/#Three_Structural_Shifts_That_Have_Made_Global_Oil_Markets_More_Resilient\" >Three Structural Shifts That Have Made Global Oil Markets More Resilient<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/#How_India_Cut_Its_Dependence_on_Single_Oil_Suppliers_and_Shipping_Routes\" >How India Cut Its Dependence on Single Oil Suppliers and Shipping Routes<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/#Strait_of_Hormuz_and_Bab_el-Mandeb_Why_These_Routes_Are_the_Biggest_Risk\" >Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb: Why These Routes Are the Biggest Risk<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/#Final_Outlook\" >Final Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<nav style=\"--separator: &quot;\/&quot;\" class=\"wp-block-breadcrumbs\" aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\"><ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/\">Home<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/latest-news\/\">News<\/a><\/li><li><span aria-current=\"page\">From $120 to $80: How Global Oil Markets Absorbed the Shock<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n\n\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width, initial-scale=1.0\">\n<link rel=\"preconnect\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.googleapis.com\">\n<link rel=\"preconnect\" href=\"https:\/\/fonts.gstatic.com\" crossorigin=\"\">\n<link 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26px;position:relative;\n    border-left:4px solid var(--copper);background:var(--mint-2);border-radius:0 12px 12px 0;\n    font-size:19px;line-height:1.5;font-weight:500;color:var(--forest);\n  }\n  .quote p{margin:0;}\n  .quote cite{\n    display:block;margin-top:12px;font-size:13px;font-weight:700;font-style:normal;\n    letter-spacing:.4px;color:var(--copper-deep);\n  }\n\n  \/* source *\/\n  .source{margin:30px 0 0;padding-top:18px;border-top:1px solid var(--line);font-size:14px;color:var(--grey);word-break:break-word;}\n  .source a{color:var(--copper-deep);}\n\n  footer{max-width:100%;margin:26px auto 54px;padding:24px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:16px;flex-wrap:wrap;}\n  footer .brand b{font-size:18px;}\n  footer .fn{font-size:13px;color:var(--grey);text-align:right;}\n\n  @media (max-width:640px){\n    body{font-size:16.5px;}\n    .masthead{padding:32px 24px 28px;}\n    .body{padding:28px 24px 34px;}\n    h2{margin-top:36px;}\n    footer .fn{text-align:left;}\n  }\n\n.entry-title,\n.post-title,\n.single-post h1,\nh1.entry-title{color:#000!important;}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n  <svg width=\"0\" height=\"0\" style=\"position:absolute\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <symbol id=\"inf\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 100\">\n      <path d=\"M25,50 C25,34 41,34 50,50 C59,66 75,66 75,50 C75,34 59,34 50,50 C41,66 25,66 25,50 Z\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"13\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><\/path>\n    <\/symbol>\n  <\/svg>\n\n  \n \n\n    <div class=\"body\">\n      <p class=\"intro\">While the ongoing conflict in West Asia has spilt over into the Red Sea, disrupting energy flows, India and global markets have witnessed relatively limited panic. Analysts attribute this resilience to more diversified energy supplies, higher strategic reserves, and the availability of spare production capacity outside the Middle East.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_Brent_Crude_Has_Moved_Through_the_Conflict\"><\/span>How Brent Crude Has Moved Through the Conflict<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Brent crude moved from below $60 a barrel last December to above $120 in March, but remained well below the extreme forecasts of $150 to $200. By August, prices had eased to around $80 a barrel as markets responded to signs of diplomatic progress.<\/p>\n      <p>Praveen Rai, Director at Grant Thornton Bharat, said markets have reacted more calmly because investors have become more confident in the global energy system&#8217;s ability to absorb shocks.<\/p>\n      <blockquote class=\"quote\">\n        <p>&#8220;Unlike earlier crises, there is greater spare production capacity outside the Middle East, higher strategic petroleum reserves, and a more diversified supplier base, including the US, Brazil, Guyana and parts of Africa.&#8221;<\/p>\n        <cite>\u2014 Praveen Rai, Director, Grant Thornton Bharat<\/cite>\n      <\/blockquote>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Three_Structural_Shifts_That_Have_Made_Global_Oil_Markets_More_Resilient\"><\/span>Three Structural Shifts That Have Made Global Oil Markets More Resilient<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Here are the structural changes that have made the current environment more resilient than previous conflict-driven price spikes:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Supplier diversification:<\/strong> Crude supply has become more diversified, with Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina together accounting for about half of this year&#8217;s global production growth, according to the US Energy Information Administration<\/li>\n        <li><strong>LNG flexibility:<\/strong> Global LNG trade reached a record 437 million tonnes in 2025, and the United States overtook Qatar as the largest exporter at 110.7 million tonnes. The rapid expansion of LNG trade has created greater flexibility to redirect cargoes<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Strategic reserves:<\/strong> The International Energy Agency&#8217;s 400-million-barrel emergency release and the recovery in Gulf exports have reinforced confidence that the current disruption, while significant, is likely temporary<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_India_Cut_Its_Dependence_on_Single_Oil_Suppliers_and_Shipping_Routes\"><\/span>How India Cut Its Dependence on Single Oil Suppliers and Shipping Routes<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>For India specifically, diversification of energy supplies has significantly improved energy resilience, analysts said. The country now sources crude oil, LNG, and LPG from a much broader range of regions than it did a decade ago, reducing dependence on any single supplier or shipping corridor.<\/p>\n      <p>India has expanded its crude sourcing to 41 countries from 27 earlier, including Brazil, the US, Venezuela, Nigeria, and Oman. Higher renewable energy penetration and greater use of alternative fuels have also reduced overall dependence on hydrocarbons in several sectors.<\/p>\n      <blockquote class=\"quote\">\n        <p>&#8220;As a result, supply disruptions in one region are increasingly offset through alternative suppliers, inventories or fuel switching, helping limit the impact on global energy markets.&#8221;<\/p>\n        <cite>\u2014 Praveen Rai, Grant Thornton Bharat<\/cite>\n      <\/blockquote>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Strait_of_Hormuz_and_Bab_el-Mandeb_Why_These_Routes_Are_the_Biggest_Risk\"><\/span>Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb: Why These Routes Are the Biggest Risk<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Despite the improved resilience, analysts cautioned that critical energy transit routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz or the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, remain the biggest risk to energy markets. A substantial share of global oil and LNG trade flows through these two corridors.<\/p>\n      <p>The latest transit data shows how quickly activity can drop:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li>Crossings through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 15 on August 3, down from a revised 19 a day earlier, per S&amp;P Global MINT and S&amp;P Global Commodities at Sea<\/li>\n        <li>Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait dropped to 21 transits on August 3 from 36 the previous day, the lowest daily level since June 1 during the current reporting period<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>Analysts and industry executives flagged two scenarios that could change the current picture sharply:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li>If attacks spread to production or export infrastructure in major producing countries<\/li>\n        <li>If multiple supply disruptions occur simultaneously across regions<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <blockquote class=\"quote\">\n        <p>&#8220;The key disruptive factor is time. The longer the conflict drags on, the more energy reserves are drawn down before they can be replenished, leading to a systemic shortfall.&#8221;<\/p>\n        <cite>\u2014 Majumdar<\/cite>\n      <\/blockquote>\n      <p>Rai added further dimensions to the risk:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li>Attacks on vessels and reduced tanker availability can make supplies commercially inaccessible even when production continues<\/li>\n        <li>Higher war-risk insurance adds a cost layer that limits market access<\/li>\n        <li>The gradual depletion of spare production capacity and inventories reduces the market&#8217;s shock-absorbing ability over time<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>In such a scenario, even relatively small supply losses could trigger disproportionately large price increases and heightened volatility across global energy markets, he added.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Outlook\"><\/span>Final Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <div class=\"outlook\">\n        <p>Oil markets have shown more stability than many anticipated at the start of the West Asia conflict, supported by structural shifts in global energy supply. The resilience, however, is not unconditional. A sustained attack on critical transit infrastructure or simultaneous disruptions across producing regions could quickly change the picture. The transit data from the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb will remain the most closely watched indicators as the conflict continues.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n\n <p class=\"source\">\n    <strong>Source:<\/strong>\n        Moneycontrol\n    \n<\/p>\n    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>While the ongoing conflict in West Asia has spilt over into the Red Sea, disrupting energy flows, India and global markets have witnessed relatively limited panic. Analysts attribute this resilience to more diversified energy supplies, higher strategic reserves, and the availability of spare production capacity outside the Middle East. How Brent Crude Has Moved Through &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/global-oil-markets-absorbed-west-asia-conflict\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;From $120 to $80: How Global Oil Markets Absorbed the Shock&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":18137,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18136","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Oil Prices Fell Back to $80 Despite War: Here Is Why<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Brent crude eased to $80 after hitting $120 in March. 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