{"id":18246,"date":"2026-08-13T04:28:05","date_gmt":"2026-08-13T10:58:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/?p=18246"},"modified":"2026-08-13T04:34:10","modified_gmt":"2026-08-13T11:04:10","slug":"india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/","title":{"rendered":"India July CPI Inflation Rises to 4.45%, Stays Above RBI Target for Second Month"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_87 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\"><\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#CPI_Inflation_How_Inflation_Moved_From_June_2026_vs_July_2026\" >CPI Inflation: How Inflation Moved From June 2026 vs July 2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#India_CPI_Inflation_Trend_January_to_July_2026\" >India CPI Inflation Trend: January to July 2026<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#Which_Food_Items_Rose_and_Which_Fell_in_July_2026\" >Which Food Items Rose and Which Fell in July 2026?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#Services_Inflation_in_July_2026_Restaurants_Transport_and_Personal_Care_Stay_Elevated\" >Services Inflation in July 2026: Restaurants, Transport and Personal Care Stay Elevated<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#Which_Categories_Are_Keeping_Inflation_in_Check\" >Which Categories Are Keeping Inflation in Check?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-6\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#Which_States_Recorded_the_Highest_CPI_Inflation_in_July_2026\" >Which States Recorded the Highest CPI Inflation in July 2026?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-7\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#How_Does_July_CPI_Data_Affect_the_RBIs_Rate_Decision\" >How Does July CPI Data Affect the RBI&#8217;s Rate Decision?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-8\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/#Final_Outlook\" >Final Outlook<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div>\n<nav style=\"--separator: &quot;\/&quot;\" class=\"wp-block-breadcrumbs\" aria-label=\"Breadcrumbs\"><ol><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/\">Home<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/latest-news\/\">News<\/a><\/li><li><span aria-current=\"page\">India July CPI Inflation Rises to 4.45%, Stays Above RBI Target for Second Month<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/nav>\n\n\n<meta charset=\"UTF-8\">\n<meta 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22px;background:var(--mint-2);border:1px solid var(--line);border-radius:14px;font-size:14px;line-height:1.6;color:var(--grey);}\n  .disclaimer strong{color:var(--steel);}\n\n  footer{max-width:100%;margin:26px auto 54px;padding:24px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:16px;flex-wrap:wrap;}\n  footer .brand b{font-size:18px;}\n  footer .fn{font-size:13px;color:var(--grey);text-align:right;}\n\n  @media (max-width:640px){\n    body{font-size:16.5px;}\n    .masthead{padding:32px 24px 28px;}\n    .body{padding:28px 24px 34px;}\n    h2{margin-top:36px;}\n    footer .fn{text-align:left;}\n  }\n\n.entry-title,\n.post-title,\n.single-post h1,\nh1.entry-title{color:#000!important;}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n  <svg width=\"0\" height=\"0\" style=\"position:absolute\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <symbol id=\"inf\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 100\">\n      <path d=\"M25,50 C25,34 41,34 50,50 C59,66 75,66 75,50 C75,34 59,34 50,50 C41,66 25,66 25,50 Z\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"13\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><\/path>\n    <\/symbol>\n  <\/svg>\n\n  \n \n\n    <div class=\"body\">\n      <p class=\"intro\">India&#8217;s retail inflation climbed to 4.45% year-on-year in July 2026, up from 4.38% in June, according to data released by the National Statistics Office. The reading marks the highest level in 19 months and the second consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India&#8217;s 4% medium-term target. The increase came in below the market forecast of 4.5% and remains within the RBI&#8217;s broader 2-6% tolerance band.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"CPI_Inflation_How_Inflation_Moved_From_June_2026_vs_July_2026\"><\/span>CPI Inflation: How Inflation Moved From June 2026 vs July 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Rural CPI is rising faster than urban and remains significantly higher across both headline and food categories.<\/p>\n      <div class=\"tbl-scroll\">\n        <table>\n          <thead><tr><th>Inflation Measure<\/th><th>June 2026<\/th><th>July 2026<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n          <tbody>\n            <tr><td>Headline CPI<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.38%<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.45%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>Rural CPI<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.74%<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.84%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>Urban CPI<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.93%<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.96%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>Food Inflation (CFPI)<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">5.32%<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"num\">5.52%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n          <\/tbody>\n        <\/table>\n      <\/div>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"India_CPI_Inflation_Trend_January_to_July_2026\"><\/span>India CPI Inflation Trend: January to July 2026<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Inflation has risen steadily since the start of the year, moving from a low of 2.74% in January to 4.45% in July, an increase of approximately 1.7 percentage points in seven months.<\/p>\n      <div class=\"tbl-scroll\">\n        <table>\n          <thead><tr><th>Month<\/th><th>CPI Inflation<\/th><\/tr><\/thead>\n          <tbody>\n            <tr><td>January<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">2.74%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>February<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.21%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>March<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.40%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>April<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.48%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>May<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">3.93%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>June<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.38%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n            <tr><td>July<\/td><td><span class=\"num\">4.45%<\/span><\/td><\/tr>\n          <\/tbody>\n        <\/table>\n      <\/div>\n      <p>The period of low inflation seen in early 2026 has clearly moderated, with the direction of travel now consistently upward.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_Food_Items_Rose_and_Which_Fell_in_July_2026\"><\/span>Which Food Items Rose and Which Fell in July 2026?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>The Consumer Food Price Index rose to 5.52% in July from 5.32% in June. Rural food inflation stood at 5.79%, against 5.05% in urban areas. The movement across individual items was uneven.<\/p>\n      <p>Categories with sharp increases:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Ginger:<\/strong> 83.62%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Garlic:<\/strong> 35.36%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Onion:<\/strong> 22.54%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Silver jewellery:<\/strong> 109.84%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Gold, diamond and platinum jewellery:<\/strong> 32.98%<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>Categories still recording deflation:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Potato:<\/strong> -16.56%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Lady&#8217;s finger:<\/strong> -5.52%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Peas:<\/strong> -5.27%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Tomato:<\/strong> -4.59%<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Services_Inflation_in_July_2026_Restaurants_Transport_and_Personal_Care_Stay_Elevated\"><\/span>Services Inflation in July 2026: Restaurants, Transport and Personal Care Stay Elevated<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Several service categories continued to show relatively firm price growth in July. Unlike food prices, services inflation does not reverse quickly when supply conditions improve, making it a more persistent contributor to the headline number.<\/p>\n      <p>Notable July inflation rates in services:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Personal care and miscellaneous services:<\/strong> 14.77%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Food and beverage serving services:<\/strong> 7.75%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Restaurants and accommodation:<\/strong> 7.72%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Transport:<\/strong> 4.43%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Education:<\/strong> 3.64%<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_Categories_Are_Keeping_Inflation_in_Check\"><\/span>Which Categories Are Keeping Inflation in Check?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Despite the rise in food and services prices, several categories are providing an offset:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Purchase of vehicles:<\/strong> -4.37%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Information and communication:<\/strong> 0.63%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Health:<\/strong> 1.34%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Housing, water, electricity, gas and fuels:<\/strong> 2.16%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Recreation, sport and culture:<\/strong> 1.64%<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>Lower readings in these categories are preventing the food-driven rise from translating into a sharper increase at the headline level.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Which_States_Recorded_the_Highest_CPI_Inflation_in_July_2026\"><\/span>Which States Recorded the Highest CPI Inflation in July 2026?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Southern and central states led the state-wise inflation chart in July:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li><strong>Telangana:<\/strong> 6.32%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Andhra Pradesh:<\/strong> 5.72%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Tamil Nadu:<\/strong> 5.44%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Madhya Pradesh:<\/strong> 4.91%<\/li>\n        <li><strong>Karnataka:<\/strong> 4.89%<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>Madan Sabnavis of Bank of Baroda attributed the higher readings in southern states to stronger demand, higher logistics costs, and local levies.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"How_Does_July_CPI_Data_Affect_the_RBIs_Rate_Decision\"><\/span>How Does July CPI Data Affect the RBI&#8217;s Rate Decision?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>The RBI kept its repo rate unchanged earlier this month. Governor Malhotra said headline inflation is expected to rise in the near term and peak in the third quarter of FY27, largely because of food and fuel prices, before moderating. He added that price pressures have not become broad-based, with core inflation excluding precious metals remaining contained.<\/p>\n      <p>The July reading does not change the RBI&#8217;s stance on its own, but it reduces the room for further easing if the upward trend continues. The central bank will focus on whether the rise proves temporary, driven mainly by specific food items, or spreads into core goods and services. Nayar expects CPI to harden to 4.7% in August and cross 5% in September.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Outlook\"><\/span>Final Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <div class=\"outlook\">\n        <p>July&#8217;s data signals a transition from the sharp disinflation of early 2026 to a period of stabilisation at higher levels. The next CPI print for August 2026 is scheduled for release on September 14, 2026.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n\n <p class=\"source\">\n    <strong>Source:<\/strong>\n        Moneycontrol\n    \n<\/p>\n\n <div class=\"disclaimer\">\n        <strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> This content is for education and awareness purpose only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>India&#8217;s retail inflation climbed to 4.45% year-on-year in July 2026, up from 4.38% in June, according to data released by the National Statistics Office. The reading marks the highest level in 19 months and the second consecutive month above the Reserve Bank of India&#8217;s 4% medium-term target. The increase came in below the market forecast &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/india-july-cpi-inflation-rises-to-4-45-stays-above-rbi-target-for-second-month\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;India July CPI Inflation Rises to 4.45%, Stays Above RBI Target for Second Month&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":18247,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-18246","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>India\u2019s July CPI Rises to 4.45% &amp; Food Inflation Hits 5.52%<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"NSO data shows retail inflation at 4.45% in July, the second month above the RBI&#039;s 4% target. 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