{"id":18303,"date":"2026-08-18T03:11:24","date_gmt":"2026-08-18T09:41:24","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/?p=18303"},"modified":"2026-08-18T03:11:25","modified_gmt":"2026-08-18T09:41:25","slug":"us-bond-yields","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/","title":{"rendered":"US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2007 as Growth Cools"},"content":{"rendered":"<div id=\"ez-toc-container\" class=\"ez-toc-v2_0_87 counter-hierarchy ez-toc-counter ez-toc-custom ez-toc-container-direction\">\n<div class=\"ez-toc-title-container\"><p class=\"ez-toc-title\" style=\"cursor:inherit\"><\/p>\n<\/div><nav><ul class='ez-toc-list ez-toc-list-level-1 ' ><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-1\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/#Why_Did_US_Treasury_Yields_Rise_Despite_Falling_Retail_Sales\" >Why Did US Treasury Yields Rise Despite Falling Retail Sales?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-2\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/#What_Does_the_30-Year_Treasury_Yield_Signal_About_the_US_Economy\" >What Does the 30-Year Treasury Yield Signal About the US Economy?<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-3\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/#Six_Geopolitical_and_Fiscal_Factors_Pushing_US_Bond_Yields_Higher\" >Six Geopolitical and Fiscal Factors Pushing US Bond Yields Higher<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-4\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/#What_the_July_FOMC_Minutes_Could_Reveal\" >What the July FOMC Minutes Could Reveal<\/a><\/li><li class='ez-toc-page-1 ez-toc-heading-level-2'><a class=\"ez-toc-link ez-toc-heading-5\" href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/#Final_Outlook\" >Final 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strong{color:var(--steel);}\n\n  footer{max-width:100%;margin:26px auto 54px;padding:24px;display:flex;align-items:center;justify-content:space-between;gap:16px;flex-wrap:wrap;}\n  footer .brand b{font-size:18px;}\n  footer .fn{font-size:13px;color:var(--grey);text-align:right;}\n\n  @media (max-width:640px){\n    body{font-size:16.5px;}\n    .masthead{padding:32px 24px 28px;}\n    .body{padding:28px 24px 34px;}\n    h2{margin-top:36px;}\n    footer .fn{text-align:left;}\n  }\n\n.entry-title,\n.post-title,\n.single-post h1,\nh1.entry-title{color:#000!important;}\n<\/style>\n\n\n\n  <svg width=\"0\" height=\"0\" style=\"position:absolute\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\n    <symbol id=\"inf\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 100\">\n      <path d=\"M25,50 C25,34 41,34 50,50 C59,66 75,66 75,50 C75,34 59,34 50,50 C41,66 25,66 25,50 Z\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"13\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><\/path>\n    <\/symbol>\n  <\/svg>\n\n  \n\n    <div class=\"body\">\n      <p>The 30-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in nearly 20 years on Monday, August 17. The last time lenders demanded this much to hold American debt for three decades, the iPhone did not exist, and Lehman Brothers was still a Wall Street institution.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Why_Did_US_Treasury_Yields_Rise_Despite_Falling_Retail_Sales\"><\/span>Why Did US Treasury Yields Rise Despite Falling Retail Sales?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>The move in long-end yields came days after two data points pointed in the opposite direction:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li>Retail sales fell a surprise 0.6% for July<\/li>\n        <li>Producer prices came in flat for the month<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n      <p>Weak demand and no pipeline inflation would ordinarily pull yields lower. The long end moved higher instead, signalling that the bond market is pricing something beyond near-term growth conditions.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_Does_the_30-Year_Treasury_Yield_Signal_About_the_US_Economy\"><\/span>What Does the 30-Year Treasury Yield Signal About the US Economy?<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>The Federal Reserve sets rates at the short end of the curve. It has held the policy rate at 3.50% to 3.75% for five straight meetings. The 30-year end reflects market pricing of inflation expectations, fiscal deficits, and long-term risk over a three-decade horizon.<\/p>\n      <p>When that number reaches a two-decade high, the market&#8217;s assessment of those long-run variables is not favourable.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Six_Geopolitical_and_Fiscal_Factors_Pushing_US_Bond_Yields_Higher\"><\/span>Six Geopolitical and Fiscal Factors Pushing US Bond Yields Higher<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>Several factors are weighing on the US fiscal and geopolitical picture simultaneously:<\/p>\n      <ul class=\"doc\">\n        <li>Crude oil sits near $83 per barrel<\/li>\n        <li>The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve just printed its lowest level in 43 years<\/li>\n        <li>The Strait of Hormuz remains a pressure point despite US Navy presence in the region<\/li>\n        <li>No resolution is in sight on the Iran situation, with no deal rush signalled from the White House<\/li>\n        <li>The administration has signalled interest in closer ties with North Korea<\/li>\n        <li>Attention on Ukraine has visibly reduced from Washington<\/li>\n      <\/ul>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"What_the_July_FOMC_Minutes_Could_Reveal\"><\/span>What the July FOMC Minutes Could Reveal<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <p>The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes are due on Wednesday, August 19. The July 29 meeting ended in a 9-3 vote to hold rates. Three members, Beth Hammack, Neel Kashkari, and Lorie Logan, voted for a 25-basis-point increase.<\/p>\n      <p>Those three dissented before retail sales fell and before crude turned back up. Nothing since the meeting has weakened their case for a hike.<\/p>\n\n      <h2><span class=\"ez-toc-section\" id=\"Final_Outlook\"><\/span>Final Outlook<span class=\"ez-toc-section-end\"><\/span><\/h2>\n      <div class=\"outlook\">\n        <p>Three signals are now aligning in the US bond market: growth is cooling, the consumer is pulling back, and lenders are demanding a higher premium to hold long-dated government debt.<\/p>\n        <p>The FOMC minutes and incoming energy and spending data will clarify whether the three dissenting members who wanted a rate increase in July are gaining ground inside the committee and whether the bond market&#8217;s current assessment of US fiscal risk holds or deepens.<\/p>\n      <\/div>\n\n <p class=\"source\">\n    <strong>Source:<\/strong>\n        Yahoo Finance\n    \n<\/p>\n\n      <div class=\"disclaimer\">\n        <strong>Disclaimer:<\/strong> This content is for education and awareness purpose only and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation. Investments in securities markets are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.\n      <\/div>\n    <\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The 30-year US Treasury yield reached its highest level in nearly 20 years on Monday, August 17. The last time lenders demanded this much to hold American debt for three decades, the iPhone did not exist, and Lehman Brothers was still a Wall Street institution. Why Did US Treasury Yields Rise Despite Falling Retail Sales? &hellip; <a href=\"https:\/\/shoonya.com\/blog\/us-bond-yields\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continue reading<span class=\"screen-reader-text\"> &#8220;US 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Highest Level Since 2007 as Growth Cools&#8221;<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":17,"featured_media":18304,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"footnotes":"","_members_access_role":[],"_members_access_error":""},"categories":[1082],"tags":[8385,10415,5812,10414],"class_list":["post-18303","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-latest-news","tag-bond-yield","tag-treasury-yield","tag-us-bond-yields","tag-us-bond-yields-impact"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Long-End US Yields 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